Many Americans in rural Georgia, Kansas, or Texas may not realize that people in Europe and around the world are closely watching events in the United States with growing concern as political divisions deepen.
The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump seems likely to intensify extremism and further entrench these divisions.
People like me, living on an island in the Mediterranean, are perplexed. I talk to many friends and family in the United States and have noticed in recent times families breaking up and lifelong friendships being terminated over political differences.
The perception has always been that the United States is a creatively free, dynamic, tolerant, multi-cultural nation of boundless opportunity and human endeavor. You have gifted the world with some of the best music, art, and technological tools.
How is it possible that the world’s arguably most powerful and successful nation in economic and military terms can so lose the plot over issues such as basic democratic norms, women’s rights, and religious freedom?
The United States remains the only superpower
Events in the United States have vast geopolitical consequences considering the military and political power wielded by the person sitting in the White House. With a GDP of 26 trillion dollars in 2023 the U.S. economy far surpassed the world’s second-largest economy China with a GDP of 19 trillion dollars followed by the economies of Germany, Japan, and India.
The U.S. defense budget of about 813 billion dollars is the largest in the world. For fiscal year 2023, it was approximately $813 billion. Compared to Russia, China, and India the U.S. military is by far the most powerful, and technologically advanced.
As an outsider looking at events in the United States from afar, here are some thoughts:
- Despite a booming economy, it appears that a significant portion of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. There is a perception that they will never live the American dream and that the system is rigged against them by elites in Washington and New York. These people are particularly prone to nostalgia rhetoric that promotes the idea that America was once a great country that has degenerated into chaos.
- American media, especially local and regional newspapers, were once prime examples of good journalism and fact-checking. There was a clear distinction between news and editorial comment or opinion. The digital revolution has basically killed-off professional journalism. Mass media in America earns its revenues with entertainment and drama, rather than educating and informing. News channels from the left and the right are propagandistic and serve two different perceptions of reality.
- The tribal bubbles are served by algorithms on social media, emphasizing confirmation bias and grievance culture. Beliefs are cemented, and other viewpoints and even solid science are rejected as fake news.
- Russian and Chinese bot factories have played significant roles in fanning divisions, fears, hate, and anxieties, through social media as part of their broad information warfare. Russian bots were particularly successful in promoting the Russian narrative on the war in Ukraine with U.S. congressmen on the right.
Devastating consequences for an inward-looking America
When America turns ever more inward with an “America First” philosophy and withdraws from such established institutions as NATO, the consequences are too ghastly to contemplate. The globalized economy has become increasingly intertwined. Disruptions of markets elsewhere will inevitably have a major impact on the man in the street in Detroit or Phoenix. The power void will be filled by other forces such as China and Russia, gaining control of major natural resources and trade routes.
Of particular concern in Europe is a possible withdrawal of U.S. military support for Ukraine. Retired U.S. commanding officer of U.S. forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, paints a devastating scenario if Ukraine should lose the war against Russia or be forced into an unacceptable peace agreement. Millions of Ukrainian refugees would massively disrupt the social order in Western Europe.
“Failure of Ukraine will have devastating consequences for Europe and for the United States. If Ukraine fails, Russia will absorb tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops into their ranks. They’ll be forced into the service and then they’ll be used as cannon fodder on the next phase of what Russia attempts. This will most likely be against Moldova, or against Lithuania or maybe even Poland,” according to Hodges.
To my American friends, I say: Your decision in November will have a major impact on lives all over the world. Who ultimately benefits from the hatred and division? Will you serve as a beacon for the rule of law, tolerance, and democratic norms or serve as a template for the dictatorships of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea on why democracy does not work?
Reino Gevers – Author – Mentor – Speaker
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